Seiko 7A38 - by the numbers

After Arpad and I 'tripped over each other' this morning, in pursuit of that 7A38-6060, I'm wondering if we could formalize something. 

Thoughts, anybody ? 

It's all your own fault.

Smartass. 

O.K. Tell me what you think about this:

http://offer.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&_trksid=p4340.l2565&rt=nc&item=280892201413

For the last day, and right up until the final 10 seconds, the bidding was static @ £103 (the proxy bid was £111).

Then with 6 seconds to go, 2 bidders unleash snipe bids of  £174.81 and £177.00, pushing the price up by £70 ....

Whereas if only one of them had bid (instead of both), it could have been won for a much more reasonable £113. 

I'm suggesting we try to form a 7Axx cabal. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabal

I don't think its a bad idea to declare our intentions.

It appears that just about anything that stays on the bay (or elsewhere) is seen by us all within a matter of hours, so only declaring our interests at the last minute (or 2 seconds as I prefer) is a tad counter productive to all but the sellers interests.

I believe Simon and I already effectively have what amounts to a 'Gentlemen's agreement' in place between us. I had told him that I intended to win the 7A38-6060 (and how high I possibly intended to bid), and so he didn't bid against me in the final shoot-out.

Having a pretty good idea how high Simon bids sometimes, I needed to remove the risk of clashing swords with him.

Unfortunately, I hadn't thought to mention it to Arpad. 

Similarly, he'd told me that he was going for a win on the 7A28-7010 (which I had placed a couple of bids on, early in the running).

'Cabal' usually carries strong connotations of shadowy corners, back rooms and insidious influence; a cabal is more evil and selective than, say, a faction, which is simply selfish; because of this negative connotation, few organizations use the term to refer to themselves or their internal subdivisions.

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I don't know if I can commit to this worrying change of direction for our formerly innocent hobby.

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But seriously, whilst I personally have no objections to collusion and indeed it's a matter of choice, it isn't necessarily very fair on the sellers.  'BUT THIS IS BUSINESS', I hear you cry and indeed it is.  And what if I want to sell a watch and you all colluded against me and Paul got it for a song??  It's a can of worms...:o

I'm no threat anyway, I tend to buy relatively cheaply, more often than not B.I.N.s and rarely at the end of a shoot-out, so  I will have to take my place as a shadowy advisor to the core of the 7A38 cabal.

Do I get a cape to wear?

That's why I made this a private members section James.    

So no cape then?

First of all I have to apologize to Paul. Yes, I also liked that 7A38-6060 so I thought it worth to try it. If I had known that Paul is going to bid on that I would have not bidded on.

And also Simon please accept my apologies as I shooted on that 7A38-7010.  (ebay item: 330741689754) I thought after you've got the 7A38-701B you will "take a rest" and leave that 7010 to somebody else

We could have avoided from this situation (and spending extra money on the winning sniping bid) if we had known each other's intentions.

I realised that the number of 7A38 fans is increased during the last couple of years, and it's getting more hard to find nice examples of 7A38s on the market. Moreover the prices are slightly ramped up, thanks to some morons who put absolutely unrealistic price and due to the increased demand.

Of course as an amateur collector I would like to get these watches relatively cheaply (probably everybody as a buyer wants them cheaply). We want to pay small amount of money for them, the sellers want to get a huge money from them. As this forum is about 7A38 fans and collectors I think we are on the buyers side. Therefore we should help each other to get these watches (relatively) cheaply, not to overbid each other. It's all about the communication. I also think if we can act this way we will be able to stabilize the 7A38 market price/value or at least get some balance between seller's price and our winning bid.

Gentlemen, I'm in it, I'm happy to share my bidding intentions in the future.

Arpad. Thank you for your understanding - and agreement in principle. No need for apologies (to me) - but Simon maybe. Ouch !!!! 

That 7A38-7010 you both went for is an even better example than the 7A28-7010 which I cited:

http://offer.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&_trksid=p4340.l2565&rt=nc&item=330741689754

The aim of this exercise is not to 'underpay' the seller (I know James had his usual agent provocateur hat on) - but to prevent further recurrences like this: where two forum members go with unneccessarily high snipe bids in the final second and end up (ac)costing each other needlessly - and as on this recent occasion, with the 7A38-7010, sometimes very dearly !

There will always be other snipers whose actions we cannot ever hope to control (or predict) Two UK collectors who immediately spring to mind are Bob Barkell - robertb113 (1***b 361) and Ian Kianzad - Koolashaka007 (s***a 1427). In the past Bob has cost me a lot of money by under-sniping. Ian is the most consistent last-second sniper I have ever seen, and is always a threat on lower value 7A's (and 7T's). One of his most recent wins was the other (lesser) Vulcan: http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/190680914772 *

Obviously to make this 'work', we need everyone here to buy into it - particularly Chris who is always complaining about being outbid (usually by Simon), though from what I've seen, he rarely actually snipes. I suspect Meng (who despite his recent threats to sell off his collection, and is still bidding on 7A's all over the place) is always going to be something of a 'loose cannon'.  

*Looking at the bidding history: http://offer.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&_trksid=p4340.l2565&rt=nc&item=190680914772 

Ian Kianzad sniped Chris (who'd placed 2 'stacked' bids) to win it. I had recognised Chris's eBay ID and already made a conscious decision not to bid again, and risk upsetting him, even though I have a Vulcan resto' project which could have benefitted from it. 

We could come to these proposed agreements in a number of ways: By email, phone or PMing each other. But could this idea work ?

http://www.seiko7a38.com/apps/forums/topics/show/7781142-the-i-bags-first-dibs-on-ebay-item-thread-

By the way, James, reference your:

And what if I want to sell a watch and you all colluded against me and Paul got it for a song??

Please rest assured that no honourable member of this forum is going to 'steal' a watch from a fellow member for 'next to nothing'.

Au contraire, I am certain that we could 'help' other members who were selling any of their 7A's on eBay, if deemed neccessary. 

I am not always moaning Paul, as you are aware I have tried to play fair with you concerning ebay bidding. 

I have even considered selling off my collection through another ebay account and watching other members outbidding each other to stratospheric heights.

I also have asked if other users would leave a nice condition 7Axx to us poorer collectors, but to no avail. 

I think a simple thread where members list their ebay intentions could work, with plenty of advance notice.

Otherwise the future will be an outbidding frenzy of crazed 7Axx collectors pushing prices up.......or are we already in that situation? 

I think a simple thread where members list their ebay intentions could work, with plenty of advance notice.

One as simple as this then ? http://www.seiko7a38.com/apps/forums/topics/show/7781142-the-i-bags-first-dibs-on-ebay-item-thread-

Rather than 'Agent provocateur', I prefer 'devil's advocate'

This is unworkable, though an honourable attempt to set something up.

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If two or more people are interested in a watch, there would need to be a situation where they communicate and decide between them, what they are prepared to pay and who will go forward and bid on it.   Let's say poster 1 says 'i'll pay £100 for watch A', poster B states they will be prepare to pay £150 for watch A but agrees to step aside, bids go past £100, does poster B step back in?

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Market forces will always prevail, in only the simplest scenario will these communications successfully lead to a happy result.   Potentially, and this is not what we're aiming for here, more watches could end up in the hands of people outside the group, due to only one person bidding whilst others have stepped aside rather than 2/3 .

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Also, I fear that decisions with regards to Ebay are fluid and not hard and fast, what you think you want to pay for something and what you will with the gun to your head can be very different unless you've high levels of discipline.  I'm not trying to create problems, quite the opposite. I just feel the more informal an agreement is, the more likely it will work.

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Ultimately the most watches will end up in the hands of those prepared to pay the most. Simple economics.

Poorer collectors will end up with poorer watches and vice versa. Sad but inevitable!

James.

As I said in my email, this concept is in no way intended to 'fix prices', or in reality to determine who will win which watch.

The primary purpose is to prevent any further repetition of the Arpad / Simon 7A38-7010 accidental snipe-fest scenario. 

But woe betide any member who calls 'First Dibs' (on a regular basis), and then fails to win any of his nominated watches.

He will very soon lose credibility - and find that no-one will be prepared to make 'Gentlemens agreements' with him any more.

Doh! missed the auction end on the gold tone 7A38, lost all credibility now I guess. 

I also have asked if other users would leave a nice condition 7Axx to us poorer collectors, but to no avail. 

I think a simple thread where members list their ebay intentions could work, with plenty of advance notice.

So, our first effort at cooperation between 'richer and poorer' members appears (on the face of it) to have failed. 

7ARCool © at June 17, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Doh! missed the auction end on the gold tone 7A38, lost all credibility now I guess. 

No, but it's not a very auspicious start, Chris !  Let's just call it 'Strike #1'. 

If there's ever a chance I'm going to miss the end of an auction, I use this: http://www.auctionsniper.com/ - it costs $0.99 cents a pop.