Seiko 7A38 - by the numbers

We've already got an existing thread in the private Members' Lounge section, that I could possibly have added this onto, entitled:

Yet another example of alleged blatant shill bidding ....

It seems to have died a natural death (through lack of new posts in the last 3 years) - unlike shill bidding on eBay, which unfortunately appears to be still very much alive and kicking. So I thought I'd resurrect it in the eBay section, where I probably should have moved it to in the first place. That said, it's still worth reading for previous examples and will provide useful reference material for any newcomer (either to the forum or eBay) who is unaware of the potential pitfalls.

A word of warning to any potential contributors to this thread: shill bidding is still just as difficult to prove conclusively, so if you do decide to cite an auction, or accuse an eBay seller, please choose your words carefully. Any  posts making wholly unsubstantiated accusations, likely to result in legal action or repercussions against the forum, will be deleted at the discretion of the forum owner.

So what raised my hackles / suspicions and caused me to go into print again, you may be asking ? 

The stainless 7A38-7020 and its US market equivalent the 7A38-7029 were big sellers in their day and are still popular with collectors today. There's a lot of tired and worn-out rubbish out there, but decent unmolested examples, where the angular case and 12-sided bezel have retained their crisp edges can fetch strong money, compared to some other models.

One such 7A38-7020 appeared on eBay Germany a week ago, with an opening bid of 1 Euro and no reserve. The seller erroniously quoted the dial part number 7A38-703 L in their listing title, instead of the case-back number. I was going to have a punt at it, but the seller was blocking bids from outside Germany, so I just added it to my eBay watching page and promptly forgot about it.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/311571634158

The auction ended yesterday evening, with the 7A38-7020 making a strong 301 Euros - nothing too outlandish.

But when I checked my eBay watching page this morning, I noticed the exceptionally high number of bids placed - 72 ! 

60 of those 72 bids had been placed by a Zero feed-back bidder, who was bidding it up right into the final 5 minutes !! 

http://offer.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=311571634158

No great surprise, if you check the bidding activity of the Zero feed-back bidder, n***s 100% of their bids are with this seller.

The actions of an innocent newbie bidder, or a shill bidding ID used by the seller to bump up the price to what he wanted to achieve ?

I'll let readers judge for themselves. Me ? I've already made my own mind up. 

As we already have two forum topics on the subject of shill bidding, I thought I might as well add this onto this newer existing thread. This example is a rather more subtle application, where an eBay seller appears to be using a shill to inflate the final selling price by effectively setting a minimum target selling price - rather than openly setting a reserve price.

Here's an edited copy and paste of my most recent post, from yesterday afternoon, in the 7A38-7140 model specific thread.

Yet another NOS black-coated 7A38-7140 appeared on eBay Italy this lunchtime, with an opening bid of only 1 Euro and no reserve*.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/112353992146

Here's the bidding as it currently stands after 24 hours: http://offer.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=112353992146

*Well pertaps not a reserve price in the traditional sense. This Italian eBay seller appears to favour a more subtle approach, regularly using a shill to set their minimum target selling price. Current high bidder 2***5 (3) placed their bid within 5 hours of the auction being listed and will no doubt continue to act as a 'hare' in the coming week. Their 100% bidding activity with this seller (and never winning) clearly indicates a shill.

Further evidence of this underhanded tactic can be found by checking the bidding history of their recently ended auction listings. They don't use it to full effect all the time - if there's sufficient interest, for example on their recent listing for a 7A38-701A. A couple of good examples are item numbers 112339688894 (where 2***5 bid 400 Euros) and 112340921637 (where 2***5 bid 500 Euros).

Here's a copy and paste of my recent update from the 7A38-7140 model specific thread (Posted on April 1, 2017 at 2:33 PM):

I did a little more digging into this Italian eBay seller's nefarious activities, which I've written up in this thread (specfically about different shill bidding techniques), in the eBay section. Then quite mysteriously, half an hour ago, the Italian seller pulled the listing. 

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/112353992146

Although the above ended summary shows 0 bids, the evidence of their frantic activity is still visible in the bidding history:

Note their first action, a full 40 seconds before they cancelled the others, was to cancel the spurious bid by shill bidder 2***5.

As it transpires, their 'hidden reserve price' was a relatively sensible 300 Euros - which likely would have been exceeded. 

Whether they did this in a failed attempt to cover their tracks, or it's been sold off eBay via the 'back door', remains to be seen. 

Still I'm sure another NOS 7A38-7140 will be along shortly. 

If there's one thing that annoys me about dishonest eBay sellers, more than keyword spamming, it's blatant shill bidding. 

Almost a month ago, I posted this in The (NOT) James Bond 007 eBay 7Axx Keyword Spamming thread.

Originally posted by myself on March 30, 2017 at 11:49 AM:

The latest distinctly nondescript watch to appear on eBay, masquerading as a 'James Bond' chronograph, is a common-or-garden two-tone 7A38-7060, listed yesterday by a keyword-spamming German seller who can't even spell Rolex. Guess he needed something to make his listing stand out from the crowd. Last time I checked there were 4 of them concurrently listed on eBay Germany. 

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/382020468613

That German eBay auction ended on 3rd April, with the watch allegedly selling for 142 Euros after 9 bids - rather higher than you'd normally expect for a well-worn two-tone 7A38-7060.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/382020468613

It was re-listed and allegedly sold for a second time for 78 Euros after 13 bids.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/382028849550

.... and again for 81 Euros after 13 bids.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/382040933589

The one constant is the winning bidder ID, which shows in abbreviated encrypted form as v***s (33).

http://www.ebay.co.uk/bfl/viewbids/382020468613?item=382020468613

http://www.ebay.co.uk/bfl/viewbids/382028849550?item=382028849550

http://www.ebay.co.uk/bfl/viewbids/382040933589?item=382040933589

No great surprise that almost all this 'mystery' eBay ID's bidding activity is on items listed by seller rrollexx. 

Perversely, somehow eBay manages to calculate the level of activity with this seller as only 43% rather than 100%. 

http://offer.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBidderProfile&mode=1&item=382040933589&bidtid

Needless to say, it's back on eBay again for a 4th time, re-listed a couple of days ago.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/382057460802