How much is a genuinely NOS 7A38-7029 SAA013J worth ?

[Seiko7A38]

Over the last year or so (and going back even further) we've seen ever-increasing prices asked for stainless 7A38-7020 SAA009J's, by profiteering re-sellers and speculators, on the back of the 'Royal Oak' hype - to the point where €750 to €1000 seems to have become the 'norm', for average condition used examples. Some (notably Italian and German) eBay sellers try asking as much as €1500 Euros for supposedly 'NOS' examples. Often as not, if you study the photos, it's not difficult to see the watches have been re-furbished (sometimes amateurishly). Their 'full sets' are often made up from random boxes. manuals and tags. I've written to that effect in a couple of previous threads:

Yet another stupidly over-priced 7A38-7020 'Royal Oak' on eBay
NOS 7A38-7020 SAA009J listed on eBay Italy (That example was genuinely NOS).

The equivalent US export model, identical in almost all respects, is the 7A38-7029 SAA013J /AA013M. The last time I remember seeing a genuinely NOS example for sale was at the end of March last year - see this thread, which ends:

The 7-day auction ended in the early hours of this morning, with the NOS 7A38-7029 AA013M sold for $821 after 15 bids.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/seiko-quartz ... 3324562200

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Makes me wonder what it might possibly have made, had it been photographed half decently.

[Seiko7A38]

What appears to be a pristine NOS example of a 7A38-7029 (which comes supplied with only a broken hang tag, no box or manuals included) was posted on Instagram at the weekend by Hawaiian poster speedyfett. I suspect the post was a very subtle plug for a forthcoming sale.

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There's also an accompanying hand-held video: https://www.instagram.com/p/Ci0rrMsMG97/

[Seiko7A38]

The same NOS 7A38-7029 was listed on eBay last night by a Hawaiian eBay seller bubbaxb, as a 7-day auction with a confident opening bid price of $749. It's being offered through eBay's dysfuctional GSP program, which if it actually allowed anyone outside CONUS to bid, would potentially add at least another $216 in charges. Me ? Not that I need another one, I won't be bidding. The very weak pound (currently at a record low against the dollar) makes it worse.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Vintage-NOS- ... 5695016569

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It'll be interested to see what it makes in 7 days time - assuming it doesn't get back-doored in the meantime.

[Seiko7A38]

The 7-day auction for that NOS 7A38-7029 ended in the early hours of this morning, selling for $819 after 5 bids. Last time I checked on it yesterday evening, the listing had almost 50 watchers, so I thought it might have done better.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/165695016569

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[Seiko7A38]

Although it's not strictly 'NOS', I thought I'd chuck this in as a comparison to that NOS 7A38-7029 which sold in the above eBay auction last October. If you hadn't noticed, such auctions are few and far between nowadays. Sellers prefer to list watches as Buy-it-Now, frequently with fanciful, sometimes risible asking prices, often regardless of condition, in the hope that some desperate punter will come along.

In the middle of June a US eBay seller pittsburghpickings, who doesn't specialize in watches, listed a 7A38-7029 in very good, almost mint cosmetic condition, complete with box and papers. His asking price was $1499.99. May as well call it $1500. Note that there's no mention of 'Royal Oak', nor the complete model number in his title nor description.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/166170407115

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Examining the photos of the watch, it appeared to be in little worn, almost pristine condition, with an unmarked clasp and a JWC inspection sticker on the case-back.

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The seller (ended and) re-listed it at the beginning of July. It sold yesterday for an undisclosed best offer - incidentally, the only offer made, best I can tell.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/166207066705

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Curious as to what it might have actually sold for, I messaged the seller asking if he was willing to disclose (but not really expecting an answer). He replied: 1200.

[Seiko7A38]

Hmm. Looks like that sale (@ $1200) must have fallen through. The US eBay seller re-listed it this afternoon, with the same $1500 Buy-it-Now asking price, again with the option to make an offer.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Seiko-Quartz ... 6260074302

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[Seiko7A38]

Checking my eBay watching page, I see that nice condition 7A38-7029 sold for a second time yesterday evening - again for an undisclosed best offer. I think I'd be pushing my luck to ask the seller 'how much' again.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/166260074302

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